I'm deeply embarrassed that it took until now for me to find (via this excellent post) Rob West. Boy he nails the tough energy realities that most public figures in the climate arena skirt. His video chats and report summaries (I can't come close to affording the fees for the full reports~!) are great: https://thundersaidenergy.com/
How is this actually calculated? Are the capital costs for building a plant shown when they are expended, or are they depreciated over the life of the plant?
"The crisis now unfolding, however, is entirely different to the 1970s in one crucial respect… The 1970s crisis was largely artificial. When all is said and done, the oil shock was nothing more than the emerging OPEC cartel asserting its newfound leverage following the peak of continental US oil production. There was no shortage of oil any more than the three-day-week had been caused by coal shortages. What they did, perhaps, give us a glimpse of was what might happen in the event that our economies depleted our fossil fuel reserves before we had found a more versatile and energy-dense alternative. . . . That system has been on the life-support of quantitative easing and near zero interest rates ever since. Indeed, so perilous a state has the system been in since 2008, it was essential that the people who claim to be our leaders avoid doing anything so foolish as to lockdown the economy or launch an undeclared economic war on one of the world’s biggest commodity exporters . . .
And this is why the crisis we are beginning to experience will make the 1970s look like a golden age of peace and tranquility. . . . The sad reality though, is that our leaders – at least within the western empire – have bought into a vision of the future which cannot work without some new and yet-to-be-discovered high-density energy source (which rules out all of the so-called green technologies whose main purpose is to concentrate relatively weak and diffuse energy sources). . . . Even as we struggle to reimagine the 1970s in an attempt to understand the current situation, the only people on Earth today who can even begin to imagine the economic and social horrors that await western populations are the survivors of the 1980s famine in Ethiopia, the hyperinflation in 1990s Zimbabwe, or, ironically, the Russians who survived the collapse of the Soviet Union."
There is no surprise here. If energy demand, population and consumer demand continue to increase exponentially while you restrict use of your cheapest cleanest fuel (natural gas), cost will rise. The easiest and fastest solution is to slow population growth and conserve energy. Conserving energy is simple. Ending long commutes in single passenger oversized vehicles is so obvious, I hesitate to mention it. Replacing short distance overland flights with high speed rail is another no brainer. Increasing heating/cooling efficiency, while reducing climate controlled space will also greatly reduce demand. All steps should be carefully evaluated for total monetary and environmental cost. Replacing high polluting fuels high sulphuric coal, animal dung, wood should be prioritized. Full cycle monetary/environmental costs and time to availability of options for replacement energy sources should be carefully and fully evaluated. Remember “First do no harm”.
I'm deeply embarrassed that it took until now for me to find (via this excellent post) Rob West. Boy he nails the tough energy realities that most public figures in the climate arena skirt. His video chats and report summaries (I can't come close to affording the fees for the full reports~!) are great: https://thundersaidenergy.com/
Not a word about peak oil?
How is this actually calculated? Are the capital costs for building a plant shown when they are expended, or are they depreciated over the life of the plant?
Similar question for the financing costs.
Understanding peak oil today with Art Berman:
https://youtu.be/CDBJdQnjE2o
Why does this seem like a lost voice when full of common sense?
"The crisis now unfolding, however, is entirely different to the 1970s in one crucial respect… The 1970s crisis was largely artificial. When all is said and done, the oil shock was nothing more than the emerging OPEC cartel asserting its newfound leverage following the peak of continental US oil production. There was no shortage of oil any more than the three-day-week had been caused by coal shortages. What they did, perhaps, give us a glimpse of was what might happen in the event that our economies depleted our fossil fuel reserves before we had found a more versatile and energy-dense alternative. . . . That system has been on the life-support of quantitative easing and near zero interest rates ever since. Indeed, so perilous a state has the system been in since 2008, it was essential that the people who claim to be our leaders avoid doing anything so foolish as to lockdown the economy or launch an undeclared economic war on one of the world’s biggest commodity exporters . . .
And this is why the crisis we are beginning to experience will make the 1970s look like a golden age of peace and tranquility. . . . The sad reality though, is that our leaders – at least within the western empire – have bought into a vision of the future which cannot work without some new and yet-to-be-discovered high-density energy source (which rules out all of the so-called green technologies whose main purpose is to concentrate relatively weak and diffuse energy sources). . . . Even as we struggle to reimagine the 1970s in an attempt to understand the current situation, the only people on Earth today who can even begin to imagine the economic and social horrors that await western populations are the survivors of the 1980s famine in Ethiopia, the hyperinflation in 1990s Zimbabwe, or, ironically, the Russians who survived the collapse of the Soviet Union."
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/07/01/bigger-than-you-can-imagine/
There is no surprise here. If energy demand, population and consumer demand continue to increase exponentially while you restrict use of your cheapest cleanest fuel (natural gas), cost will rise. The easiest and fastest solution is to slow population growth and conserve energy. Conserving energy is simple. Ending long commutes in single passenger oversized vehicles is so obvious, I hesitate to mention it. Replacing short distance overland flights with high speed rail is another no brainer. Increasing heating/cooling efficiency, while reducing climate controlled space will also greatly reduce demand. All steps should be carefully evaluated for total monetary and environmental cost. Replacing high polluting fuels high sulphuric coal, animal dung, wood should be prioritized. Full cycle monetary/environmental costs and time to availability of options for replacement energy sources should be carefully and fully evaluated. Remember “First do no harm”.